British bookies are famous for taking bets on events far removed from the outcome of the fifth race at Pimlico. Lately, Vegas bookies have been expanding their own horizons.

Let’s say you find an American bookie willing to take your money for any of the following possible future events—at odds of 1,000 to 1. Which means you could see your measly $100 turn into $100,000.

Still, the successful bettor is a smart bettor (or tries to be), So you have to ask yourself: How realistic is it to assume that, even with odds of 1,000 to 1, any of these things will come to pass.

Future Bets:
1. Within 10 years the Ross Ice Shelf will slide off of Antarctica into the ocean. Within months sea level around the world will rise six feet (or more). Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

2. Within 10 years, the price of gasoline in the United States will quadruple. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

3. Within 10 years the central portion of Washington, D.C. will be rendered uninhabitable by a terrorist attack. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

4. Within 10 years a new, deadly epidemic of unknown origin will sweep the globe. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

5. Within 10 years the heart of the Middle East—Saudi Arabia, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan—will be devastated by atomic explosions. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

6. Within 10 years martial law will be declared in the United States, with the government becoming a dictatorship in all but name. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

7. Within 10 years at least three of the above events will occur. Would you make THIS bet at odds of 1,000,000 to 1? ____

Considering yourself intelligent and something of a realist, you of course reject all seven bets, preferring to spend your $100 here and now.

Now as a further test of your realistic outlook, let’s go back in time. Pretend the year is 1993. You find a bookie who is offering the following bets:

Past Bets
1. Within 10 years a president will be impeached for fellatio and/or cunnilingus. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

2. Within 10 years a president with far less than a plurality of votes will be installed by a ruling of the Supreme Court. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

3.Within 10 years a stock market crash will occur that results in a loss of approximately $1.5 trillion. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

4. Within 10 years both buildings of the World Trade Center will collapse in flames. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

5. Within 10 years the United States will invade and occupy a nation of 20 million people that has neither attacked us nor threatened to attack us. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

6. Within 10 years two of the largest corporations in the world will be reduced to shambles by fraud at the highest levels. Would you make this bet at odds of 1,000 to 1? ____

7. Within 10 years at least three of the above events will occur. Would you make THIS bet at odds of 1,000,000 to 1? ____